Job Gains Fall Short

A wide range of economic news was favorable for mortgage rates last week. The Employment data was weaker than expected, Japan expanded its bond-buying program, and tensions with North Korea increased. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week significantly lower.

Friday's Employment report was disappointing in nearly every area. Against a consensus forecast of 190K, the economy added just 88K jobs in March. Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, was flat from last month. Digging deeper, the small bit of good news was that the data from the prior two months was revised higher by 61K jobs. This was far outweighed, however, by the bad news in the details of the Unemployment Rate. The Unemployment Rate unexpectedly dropped from 7.7% to 7.6%, but the decline was entirely due to people exiting the labor force. It is good for the economy if the Unemployment Rate declines because more people get jobs, but not if the cause is a shrinking labor force. Weak labor market data reduces future inflation expectations, which is good for mortgage rates. In addition, it likely extends the duration of the Fed's bond-buying program, which is also good for mortgage rates.

Thursday, the Bank of Japan announced that it will sharply ramp up its bond purchases to levels which will add $1.4 trillion to its balance sheet over the next two years. Like the Fed, the BOJ is buying bonds to help boost the economy. This added demand for Japanese bonds caused their yields to decline, making US bonds relatively more attractive to global investors. This benefited US mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which helped push mortgage rates lower.